(Reuters) – Pfizer Inc on Wednesday raised its full-year sales forecast for the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with Germany’s BioNTech by 29% to $33.5 billion, as nations stock up on doses for the rest of the year.
The company also said it could apply for an emergency use authorization for a potential booster dose as early as August, reiterating that a third shot will likely be needed to enhance protection amid a resurgence in infections in many countries.
New early data showed that a third dose of the current BNT162b2 vaccine generated virus-neutralizing antibodies against the the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant that were more than 5 times higher in younger people and more than 11 times higher in older people than from two doses, Pfizer said.
“All in all, I think a third dose would strongly improve protection against infection, mild-moderate disease, and reduce the spread of the virus,” Chief Scientific Officer Mikael Dolsten said on a call to discuss quarterly results.
Dolsten added that the data suggested levels of antibodies could be boosted up to 100-fold when compared to levels before the third dose.
The company also posted a non-peer reviewed study (https://bit.ly/3zHAftF)on the medRxiv website on Wednesday suggesting the vaccine’s efficacy declines over six months and had dropped to around 84% effectiveness, from a peak of 96% between seven days and two months after participants received their second dose.
Pfizer’s decision earlier this month to seek authorization for a third dose drew criticism from U.S. health regulators, who said there was not yet enough data to show booster shots are needed. Scientists from U.S. health agencies have since discussed additional doses for people with compromised immune systems.
Meanwhile, billions of people in other countries are still waiting for a first COVID-19 shot.
Even without boosters, the company’s 2021 sales forecast is expected to move higher as it only accounts for 2.1 billion doses that it has committed to countries out of 3 billion it plans to make this year.
The company also said that it expects to have the safety and immunogenicity data that could potentially support an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for use in children ages 5 to 11 years old by late September.
The drugmaker, whose shot was authorized for adults in the United States, Europe and other regions around the world in December of 2020, has won new orders as rivals such as AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have faced manufacturing and safety hurdles.
Pfizer also competes with U.S. mRNA vaccine maker Moderna Inc, which has not been able to scale up production as quickly as its much larger rival.
“Worldwide demand for vaccines against the virus is expected to continue and the generally positive attitude towards Pfizer’s vaccine … puts the company in a strong position to benefit going forward,” said uk.Investing.com analyst Samuel Indyk.
The updated sales forecast is based on signed deals for 2.1 billion doses. The forecast could be raised again if Pfizer signs additional contracts.
J&J last week estimated full-year COVID-19 vaccine sales of $2.5 billion, while Moderna has forecast $19.2 billion.
The production ramp-up is subject to expansion at current facilities, adding new suppliers and contract manufacturers, the company said. Pfizer records most of the combined sales from the vaccine, and splits expenses and profit 50-50 with its German partner.
Pfizer and BioNTech plan next month to test a version of the vaccine specifically designed to take on the fast-spreading Delta variant, with the first batch already manufactured, Pfizer said. The more easily transmissible variant now accounts for more than 80% of new U.S. COVID-19 cases and has also become dominant in many other countries.
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