Opinion of the Hans-Böckler-Foundation for the easing of the measures
The loosening of the contact restrictions which were enforced to curb the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, should be carried out according to the recommendation of the non-profit Hans-Böckler-Foundation, rather Wisely instead of quickly. The experts warn of a renewed sharp increase in case numbers, if the be loosening prematurely.
The non-profit Hans-Böckler Foundation deals with Co-determination, research and study to promote the work of the German Confederation of trade unions. A Committee of the Foundation recommends in a recent opinion, the not the loosening of the contact restrictions from a health political and economical point of view in haste, but in a good prepared steps. A premature lifting of mountains, the danger is that the infection increase abruptly. The opinion with the title “quick exit or legatee easing?” was published on the website of the Foundation.
Premature easing could make the success of the measure
The Institute for macroeconomics and economic research (IMK) of the Hans-Böckler-Stiftung carried out a short study, in which the next steps for the relaxation of the contact constraints have been assessed. This showed that a careless and quick lifting has a much greater and long-lasting effect on the health system and on the Economy as a gradual and cautious easing.
In addition, the conditions for the easing would have to be communicated with enough lead, in order for the population and the enterprises on it. “It is important that the contact restrictions will be sustainably eased, as you will be quickly relaxed,” says Professor Dr. Sebastian Dullien, the Scientific Director of IMK.
What are the economic consequences of the measures?
The Institute calculated that every month will be continued to the contact restrictions unchanged, the economic growth by about one percentage point decreases. There is also the risk that it will come to company failures and rising unemployment waxes. In addition, it must be expected that there is a shrinkage of the gross domestic product (GDP) by four percent.
Another Shutdown would be more severe
In contrast, the risk of recurrence area is prohibited-wide closures of schools, shops and gastronomy as well as Holidays. A prolonged Stop-and-Go would hit the German economy harder, warns the Foundation. “At the end of the total duration of the interruptions in Operation counts. If now for two weeks, everything will be opened and then need to again for two months, nothing is won,“ stresses Economist Dullien
Premature easing = exponential infection growth?
According to the Simulation calculations of the IMK, it would be within a few weeks to a renewed exponential growth of SARS-2 infections. A loosening of power, according to the Foundation only if the reproduction rate is the number of people actually infected, an infected Person remains low – so. In the best case, this number must be less than one. She is two, there is an exponential growth.
Relaxations in the beginning of may could start
The Hans-Böckler-Stiftung holds a gradual easing from the beginning of may for useful, if one is pursuing a smart strategy in the Openings. The conditions for this should be made as soon as possible communicated in the next few days. The following points should play a role:
Implementation of infection prevention and spacing rules
In day-care centres, schools, retail and hospitality, the need to ensure that standards for infection prevention to be implemented. “The companies and public institutions must be more clearly than previously said what when they can expect,” says Dullien. Such measures might include the use of tags, so that Hygiene requirements can be met. In shops and service establishments should work with partitions.
Schools and nurseries
The Foundation also proposes, operating in schools and day care centers first to partially resume. For example, the classes could be cut in half and alternate every other day to be informed.
As soon as a wide availability of simple mouth-nose protection masks to be given, should be considered a General obligation to Wear simple masks in Public. A quick ramp-up of the domestic production of such a mask would be useful and should be encouraged by the government.
Mobile Apps for the infection of persecution
A great importance to the IMK phone Apps speaks, a nationwide Tracking of infectious events and infection chains allow. Great emphasis should be laid on the observance of data protection provisions. Contact or motion profiles cannot be saved.
Regional limited Openings to advance
In addition, the Foundation considers it useful, in cities, counties, and regions with low infection to allow the Re-opening advance faster rates, than in heavily affected areas. But the Hygiene should be adhered to.
Digital infrastructure in schools to promote
Schools need to set the Foundation, according to a renewed temporary closures. Therefore, improvements in the digital infrastructure is useful to the school to maintain digitally. Disadvantaged children and young people should be provided with the necessary equipment.
The European neighboring countries to promote
In addition, the Foundation points out that, in order to maintain the German economy also makes sense to support the European neighbouring countries, because a large part of the expected drop in GDP in the current year is also due to a decrease in the demand for German industrial products abroad, as well as to disturbances in the cross-border supply chains. Alone under this point of view, no quick recovery of the economy could be expected by a quick lifting of contact restrictions.
“At least as important is that cross-border supply chains, reactivated, and the world is stabilized economy,” says Dullien. “At the European level, more flexibility of the Federal government in questions of the so-called the Corona-was, therefore, required Bonds to achieve a coordinated stabilization of the cross-border trade with the EU partners,” writes the Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
Large-scale events for a longer time taboo?
In addition, the Hans-Böckler-Foundation has a clear Statement to large-scale events. Here is no return to the time when it was to be expected in the near time in front of the Corona-crisis. The prohibition of such events will probably have to stay for a longer time exist. (vb)
Also read: Coronavirus: gradual Opening-up of schools as the first to implement.