Researchers find Change Points of the crisis – and Corona-Exit strategy

Scientists at the large German science organisations have warned that the easing of measures against the spread of the Coronavirus has been too early. Using computer models, they show the consequences this can have – and how we can now even against taxes.

In April, researchers from the four large German research organisations – the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Leibniz-Gemeinschaft and Max-Planck-Gesellschaft had introduced a model that had investigated the effect of the measures of the Federal government in response to the spread of Sars-CoV-2.

According to their analysis, on the basis of the reported infection three-time figures in Germany, points, so-called “Change Points” at which the spread of Sars-CoV-2, respectively, has been effectively reduced to:

Time, 1: the 9. March. At this time, large events such as fairs and football forbidden games. The spread rate was almost halved.

Time 2: the 16. March. The propagation rate decreased by a further 40 per cent. Schools, kindergartens and most of the shops were closed.

Point 3: the 23. March. The spread rate was cut in half again. In this Phase, the contact restrictions were introduced.

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Researchers warn: relaxations come too quickly

In a late April Statement released, the researchers outline a possible strategy for containment of the Virus. Many of them were now critical of the resolved relaxations and fear that they might interfere with the measures of the successes achieved.

The contact restrictions around Covid-19 have broken the Simulation, the dreaded exponential spread of the Virus. “We see a clear effect of the contact lock 22. March, and, of course, the contribution of each individual Person,“ said Viola pries man, head of a research team from the Max Planck Institute and one of the authors in April. “Our society can really be proud of the fact that they managed this turnaround.”

But they, too, considered the were loosening with skepticism. Their models have shown that the adopted in March, packages of Measures have reduced the reproduction number by about 40 per cent., but: “Now a lot of people go back to Restaurants, to the gym, we meet again more. This opens up the Virus in a new propagation paths. The exact course is very difficult, because the behavior of the people plays a big role,” she said in an Interview with the “world”.

Relaxations like in the short term be successful in the long term, researchers would have wished for a different approach

Pries man explains that the loosening might well achieve short-term benefits. “But I don’t believe that the population and many politicians are completely unaware of was the fact that we also have the Chance to have a long-term stable Situation to reach – and thus a largely normal life. Now it has been decided in favour of loosening, without understanding, what are the risks of actually saying that you gambled the success of containment, and it will take significantly longer until a stable situation is reached.“

Even a small increase in the rate of growth could alter the dynamics to an unstable state with exponential growth. Therefore, should you have a watchful eye on the new infections have. Finally, it was about “two weeks blind” for possible worsening conditions. You miss the Moment on a knife edge even faster exponential increase could follow. Therefore, the researchers suggest: “It is important, only through the loosening of the restrictions to think about, if the number of active cases is so low that a Two-weeks-not the health care increase is a serious problem.”

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  • Viola pries guy said on a press conference, the most sensible value, the focus could be not 50 or 30 or 100 new infections per 100,000 people, “but really the Zero“, to have a stable Situation to get. Only Covid-19-free-I could go for the social life without worry again. This is also useful if you consider the collateral damage – for example, the economic.

    Test and Track: As an optimal Corona might look like-scenario

    Pries man proposes therefore: the spread completely under control, it is necessary that each chain of infection to be tracked, is. It should be set according to the physicist, the focus on such a new infections that occur unexpectedly, the therefore, is not a well-known chain of infection back. “Actually, only such contagious are important to evaluate how well the epidemic is under control. Infections of people who are already in quarantine, if you develop symptoms, you don’t have the 50 offset. These people are for the infection to happen is almost irrelevant, because you plug in with great security, no other people,” she said of the “world”.

    It is important to press the number of the new infections so that a seamless contact tracking is possible. In addition, it should more intensively be tested, no infection to be overlooked.

    Relaxations in the computer model: up to 6000 new infections are possible

    Extolling man and the team of scientists have using your model now also have developed scenarios to which the relaxations could lead. In the most optimistic scenario , it is assumed that, in spite of relaxed restrictions, no increase in the infection rate. This scenario is the Consideration of the fact that the contact tracing and the Detection of new foci of infection so successful could be that the propagation push back, even though the measures have been relaxed. Max Planck Institute for dynamics and self-organization are Three possible scenarios for the development of new infections after the loosening of restrictions to 11. May.

    In the pessimistic scenario, however, assumed that the infection rate is approximately doubled. The can by doubling the number of contacts at work, in public space and in the circle of friends happen. Similarly, less caution in the individual contacts can help. In the case of a doubling in the rate of infection there is a further exponential increase. To July would be then around 6000 new infections per day were recorded.

    This could, according to pries guy, however, be avoided: with a gap-free tracking. It could bring new infections”, in principle, to Zero.”

    Second wave is possible, but Germany can prepare

    A second shaft keeps the physicist but anyhow, it is very likely, as in the “world”Interview, explained. The reason for this pessimism, the relaxations, the current situation to be. At the same time it was the second wave, however, optimistic: “at Least we know then that the shaft can be pushed back. I was impressed by how well we have succeeded for the first Time.“

    About the timing and strength of the next wave could only speculate: “Much will depend on whether the people’s true even now in the times of the relaxations more distance and hygiene rules to comply with.”

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